American Humanist Party
Economic Model and Federal Budget
Federal Revenue Model — Budget Comparison — 5-Year Deficit Path — Per-Family Impact — 10-Year Investment Buildout. All data sourced from CBO, BEA, BLS, Census Bureau, CMS, DOE, FEMA, DOT, NCES, and GAO.
Where America Stands Today
Before understanding the AHP's economic model, it helps to understand exactly where America stands right now — using verified government data from fiscal year 2025.
Revenue Calculation — Step by Step
AHP Federal Budget Model
Today the U.S. spends $7 trillion a year and collects only $5.2 trillion — leaving a $1.8 trillion deficit every single year. The AHP reorganizes spending around what people actually need to survive and projects elimination of the deficit by Year 5 of full implementation.
Key Cost Savings in the AHP Framework
5-Year Deficit Reduction Path
Assumes 2.5-3% annual GDP growth consistent with the CBO 10-year baseline, and full AHP implementation beginning Year 1.
What It Means Per American Family
Based on verified government and industry data, here is what the average American family saves annually under the AHP framework.
10-Year Investment Buildout
Transitioning to the AHP framework requires upfront investment in infrastructure, systems, and institutions. All projections drawn exclusively from official government sources. All figures represent capital/buildout cost — not ongoing annual operational expenses.
$30.8T
U.S. GDP (2025)
BEA, Q4 2025
$5.2T
Federal Revenue
CBO FY2025
$7.0T
Federal Spending
CBO FY2025
$1.8T
Annual Deficit
CBO FY2025
$949B
Annual Interest on Debt
CBO FY2025
163M
Employed Workers
BLS/IMF 2025
$62,600
Median Annual Wage
BLS CPS 2025
37.9M
Americans in Poverty
Census Bureau, 2023
The U.S. currently pays $949 billion per year just in interest on the national debt (CBO FY2025). The entire 10-year AHP buildout costs less than 3 years of current debt interest payments.
AHP Federal Revenue Model
The AHP replaces the current complicated tax system with a simpler, more transparent one. Here is exactly how revenue is projected, step by step.
Revenue by Source
| Tax Component | Rate | Who Pays | Est. Annual Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Income Tax | 9% flat | All able-bodied working individuals | ~$918 Billion |
| Payroll / Social Security Tax | Current statutory rate | Employers and employees | ~$1.20 Trillion |
| Survival Tax | 2.75% flat | All able-bodied working individuals | ~$281 Billion |
| Capital Gains Tax | 2.75% on net gain | Citizens under $650K income | ~$187 Billion |
| Capital Gains — High Earners | 2.75% + 1.375% surcharge | Individuals over $650K income | ~$28 Billion |
| Corporate / Business Tax | 2.75% flat | All business entities | ~$415 Billion |
| Sales Tax (blended) | Up to 11% national cap | All consumer purchases | ~$620 Billion |
| Property Tax (above caps) | 2.75% personal / 3.75% business | Owners of assets above personal caps | ~$85 Billion |
| Estate Tax | 2.75% federal / 1.375% state | Estates at time of transfer | ~$28 Billion |
| Tariffs and Excise Duties | Existing + harmonized | Imported goods | ~$195 Billion |
| Total Projected AHP Revenue | All sources combined | ~$6.19 Trillion | |
Step 1 — Wage Base: 163 million employed workers x $62,600 median annual wage = $10.2 trillion total wage income.
Step 2 — Federal Income Tax: $10.2 trillion x 9% = approximately $918 billion. The $85,000 standard deduction means lower-income workers pay 0% on their first $85K. Effective taxable base estimated at ~60% of gross wages.
Step 3 — Survival Tax: All able-bodied workers pay 2.75% on gross wages. $10.2T x 2.75% = approximately $281 billion for the Survival Fund — covering healthcare, childcare, veterans care, Social Security, energy, and infrastructure.
Step 4 — Corporate/Business Tax: U.S. corporate profits estimated at ~$3.3 trillion in 2024 (BEA). At 2.75% flat rate = approximately $415 billion including all business entities.
Step 5 — Total Revenue: Combined projected total of approximately $6.19 trillion.
Per-Citizen Revenue Breakdown
Step 2 — Federal Income Tax: $10.2 trillion x 9% = approximately $918 billion. The $85,000 standard deduction means lower-income workers pay 0% on their first $85K. Effective taxable base estimated at ~60% of gross wages.
Step 3 — Survival Tax: All able-bodied workers pay 2.75% on gross wages. $10.2T x 2.75% = approximately $281 billion for the Survival Fund — covering healthcare, childcare, veterans care, Social Security, energy, and infrastructure.
Step 4 — Corporate/Business Tax: U.S. corporate profits estimated at ~$3.3 trillion in 2024 (BEA). At 2.75% flat rate = approximately $415 billion including all business entities.
Step 5 — Total Revenue: Combined projected total of approximately $6.19 trillion.
| Measure | Per Worker (163M) | Per Capita (340M) | Annual National Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Income Tax (9% of median wage) | $5,634/yr | $2,700/yr | ~$918 Billion |
| Survival Tax (2.75% of median wage) | $1,722/yr | $826/yr | ~$281 Billion |
| After $85K Standard Deduction (median earner) | $0 income tax | N/A | Deduction exceeds median wage |
| Total Federal Revenue (all sources) | $37,975/yr per worker | $18,206/yr per person | ~$6.19 Trillion |
| Category | Current FY2025 (CBO) | AHP Projected (Year 5) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Social Security | $1,380B | $1,380B | No change |
| Medicare and Medicaid | $1,650B | $1,200B (universal) | -$450B |
| Defense and Veterans | $895B | $780B (streamlined) | -$115B |
| Net Interest on Debt | $949B | $650B (declining) | -$299B |
| Education | $309B | $520B (free college) | +$211B |
| Transportation and Infrastructure | $105B | $420B (federalized) | +$315B |
| Energy (federal) | $0B | $180B/yr (operating) | +$180B |
| Childcare and Social Services | ~$180B | $290B | +$110B |
| Disaster Relief Fund | ~$40B | $423B (1.375% GDP) | +$383B |
| Immigration Services | ~$26B | $45B | +$19B |
| Other Mandatory / Discretionary | $712B | $490B (reduced) | -$222B |
| Total Projected Spending | $7,000B+ | $6,378B | -$622B |
~$500B/yr
Private Insurance Overhead Eliminated
The U.S. spends 34% of all healthcare dollars on administrative overhead in private insurance (Himmelstein et al., JAMA 2020). Federal single-payer eliminates most of this structural waste.
~$150-250B/yr
Pharmaceutical Price Negotiation
Full AHP negotiation across all federal purchases projects 3-5x the savings of the Inflation Reduction Act's limited drug negotiations.
~$299B/yr
Reduced Interest Payments
As the AHP eliminates the deficit over 5 years, annual interest payments on the national debt decline proportionally from the current $949B/yr.
~$70B/yr
Student Loan Subsidies Eliminated
Free public university eliminates the need for federal student loan programs, which currently cost $70B+/year in subsidies and default costs (DOE, 2024).
~$8B/yr
Streamlined FEMA
Reducing processing steps from 49 to 15 eliminates 10-15% of funds wasted in delays and processing costs (GAO-23-105460).
~$4B/yr
Private Prison Contracts Eliminated
DOJ Inspector General data shows private prisons cost 14.4% more per inmate than federal facilities, with worse outcomes.
Year 0 (Current)
$1.8T Deficit
Year 1
$1.4T Deficit
Year 2
$950B Deficit
Year 3
$480B Deficit
Year 4
$120B
Year 5
BALANCED
$24,000
Health Insurance Premiums
Average family premium eliminated (KFF 2024)
$32,000
Childcare Costs
2 children — fully covered (EPI 2024)
$4,500
Student Loan Payments
Average annual payment eliminated via free tuition
$3,600
Energy Bills
Electric, gas and water covered under Survival Tax (EIA avg.)
+$60,656
Estimated Net Annual Gain Per Median Family
After Survival Tax contribution — Sources: KFF, EPI, Federal Reserve, EIA, CBO FY2025
$285-450B
Universal Healthcare Infrastructure (5-year)
- →Federal Health Administration buildout — $12B
- →Elder Care Training Facility Network (100 facilities) — $85B
- →Universal Electronic Health Records system — $28B
- →Pharmaceutical negotiation system — $4.5B
- →Medicare/Medicaid maintenance during transition — $210B
$1.2-1.8T
Federal Energy Grid Nationalization (10-year)
- →Nuclear energy expansion — 50 new plants — $750B
- →National grid modernization — $250B
- →Renewable integration (solar, wind, battery) — $180B
- →Federal energy administration buildout — $22B
$180-240B
Universal Education Infrastructure (5-year)
- →Free tuition compensation to public universities — $78B/yr
- →K-12 equalization funding — $45B one-time + $12B/yr
- →Career/vocational training facility buildout — $28B
- →Free community college language programs — $6B
$423B/yr
Federal Disaster Relief Fund (Ongoing)
- →Annual fund deposit: 1.375% of GDP — $423.5B/yr
- →CERF Rapid Response allocation — $4.2B reserved
- →FEMA IT system modernization (one-time) — $2.8B
- →Social worker training and hiring (one-time) — $1.2B
$620B
Transportation and Transit Infrastructure (10-year)
- →Fare-free transit operational funding — $40B/yr
- →Rail infrastructure expansion — $120B
- →Transit hub installation at all public facilities — $38B
- →Toll infrastructure removal — $12B
$28-42B
Immigration Processing Centers (5-year)
- →Federal dormitory construction (100 facilities) — $18B
- →DOJ immigration processing IT modernization — $4.2B
- →Immigration court expansion — $3.8B
- →Social worker hiring and deployment — $2.1B
| Investment Category | 10-Year Cost |
|---|---|
| Healthcare Infrastructure (5-year buildout) | $370B |
| Federal Energy Grid (10-year buildout) | $1,500B |
| Education Infrastructure (5-year buildout) | $210B |
| Transportation and Transit (10-year buildout) | $620B |
| Immigration Facilities (5-year buildout) | $35B |
| IT and Government System Modernization | $48B |
| Total 10-Year Investment | ~$2.78 Trillion |
$2.78 trillion over 10 years equals approximately $278 billion per year — or approximately $818 per American per year — representing less than 1% of GDP annually. The entire 10-year AHP buildout costs less than 3 years of current debt interest payments.
Legal Framework — Key Laws to Change
For any policy to become real, specific laws must be changed. Below are the primary federal laws that must be amended, repealed, or newly enacted.
Universal Healthcare
- →42 U.S.C. § 1395 (Medicare Act) — Amend to expand to universal coverage for all ages
- →42 U.S.C. § 1396 (Medicaid Act) — Merge into universal federal healthcare fund
- →ERISA (29 U.S.C. § 1001) — Repeal employer insurance mandate provisions
- →Affordable Care Act (Pub. L. 111-148) — Replace with AHP Universal Healthcare Act
- →29 U.S.C. § 206 (FLSA — Minimum Wage) — Amend to set $33/hour federal floor
- →29 U.S.C. § 207 (FLSA — Overtime) — Amend to set threshold at 32 hours/week
- →Citizens United v. FEC (2010) — Overturn via 28th Constitutional Amendment
- →Lobbying Disclosure Act (2 U.S.C. § 1601) — Repeal; replace with total prohibition
- →Federal Election Campaign Act (52 U.S.C. § 30101) — Amend: $100 individual cap
- →20 U.S.C. § 1001 et seq. (Higher Education Act) — Amend to mandate zero tuition at all public institutions
- →26 U.S.C. § 25A (American Opportunity Tax Credit) — Merge into unified $5,000 education credit
- →23 U.S.C. § 129 (Tolling Authorization) — Amend to prohibit new tolls; phase out existing
- →49 U.S.C. § 5301 et seq. (Federal Transit Act) — Authorize fare-free operations funding
- →15 U.S.C. § 45 (FTC Act — Unfair Trade Practices) — Amend to prohibit all undisclosed fees
- →15 U.S.C. § 1601 et seq. (Truth in Lending Act) — Expand to all consumer transactions
Data Sources
CBO Monthly Budget Review FY2025 · BEA GDP Q4 2025 Advance Estimate · BLS Current Population Survey 2025 · Census Bureau Population Estimates 2025 · CMS National Health Expenditure Data · KFF 2024 Employer Health Benefits Survey · EPI Minimum Wage Simulation Model 2024 · NCES IPEDS 2023 · Federal Transit Administration FY2025 Budget · FHWA Highway Statistics 2023 · GAO Disaster Assistance Report GAO-23-105460 · DOE Grid Deployment Office 2024 · DOJ Inspector General Review 2016 · CFPB Junk Fees Report 2023 · Federal Reserve Consumer Credit G.19 2024 · OpenSecrets Annual Lobbying Report 2024 · EIA Residential Energy Consumption Survey · FEMA Congressional Budget Justification FY2025 · CRS Introduction to U.S. Economy: Personal Income 2024 · BEA National Income and Product Accounts 2024